About two months into the war, Israel is nearing a decisive junction. Israeli forces have made considerable gains in the northern Gaza Strip, but Hamas is far from falling apart in Gaza’s south, and maintains capabilities in the north as well.
If we wish to survive in our tough environment, completing the mission of dismantling Hamas’ military and governmental capabilities is critical, even in the face of external pressure. But months, and perhaps more will be required to achieve this. The operational and political clocks are not synchronized. International legitimacy is running out fast and the tensions building up behind closed doors, including with the United States, could boil over. It is the responsibility of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to synchronize these clocks and obtain the necessary time, but he has failed in this task, and so we are at a decisive junction.
Netanyahu is ignoring the fact that a relationship of trust with the White House is crucial for Israel to achieve its goals.
There are delays and loss of momentum that stem from the hostages deal, but these are justified. Releasing the hostages is not more important than crushing Hamas, but it is more urgent and thus should be given utmost priority. Netanyahu’s failure in leading the war lies in his denial of the understanding that in this case, victory cannot be achieved without a clear position on the “day after” and a plan to implement that vision. Having such a position enables identification of the critical elements involved and how to work with them today so they will be there when the time comes for the “day after.” The United States, Egypt, Jordan, the Abraham Accords countries, Saudi Arabia: These are the crucial factors. It is only by working successfully with them that Israel can receive legitimacy from the powers and regionally, to complete the dismantling of Hamas.
It is hard to accept Netanyahu’s proposals, because so many of the theses he cultivated and boasted about collapsed on October 7: 1. “Hamas is an asset, and the PA is a burden.” 2. The conflict can be “managed” without ever having to make difficult decisions. 3. There can be peace with Saudi Arabia and the Arab world, while at the same time ignoring the Palestinians. 4. “Netanyahu is in a league of his own.” Really. With Putin? Obama? Biden? Sinwar? 5. “Mr. Security”? The one who said, “When terror smells weakness, it raises its head”?
Anyone who knows Netanyahu and observes him today must surely have serious doubts about his fitness to lead such a complex campaign. His supporters too should take a moment to think: Is he really up to the task?
Netanyahu is ignoring the fact that a relationship of trust with the White House is crucial for Israel to achieve its goals. The United States has deployed troops and military assets in the region in unprecedented numbers in order to deter Iran and Hezbollah and support Israel as part of its stand against the “rogue axis”: Iran, Syria, Hezbollah, Hamas and others operating with Russian backing.
For the "day after," the U.S. envisions an Arab peace-keeping force, from the countries of the moderate axis listed above, that, following the fall of Hamas and after security measures have been put in place, would take the reins from Israel for a limited period in which a “Palestinian Authority 2.0 (a revitalized authority) would be brought in. The Arab force would help the PA consolidate control of the Gaza Strip. Joe Biden sees this as the first step on the way to a two-state solution and therefore will be willing to back Israel militarily and economically, with an airlift and with a diplomatic umbrella at the United Nations Security Council and at The Hague.
Netanyahu is tied to an unholy alliance with Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, pyromaniacs prone to lighting fires in the West Bank, who for their part protect him from the demand for his immediate ouster. But mainly, they take advantage of him to impose their ideology that Gaza should return to full Israeli control and responsibility.
If that were to happen, Israel would likely bog down in the Gazan quagmire and lead to conflict lasting years, crisis with the American administrations, and tangible risk to Israel’s relations with Egypt and Jordan, to the Abraham Accords and to normalization with Saudi Arabia.
These considerations may lie on the distant horizon, but the "day after" requires that already in the immediate term, we must coordinate and build relations of trust, behind the scenes as well, with the U.S. and with our neighbors. Such relations cannot exist with the present government in power, because, as is the case among the majority of the Israeli public, in Washington and in regional capitals, nobody believes a word Netanyahu says – certainly not promises given behind closed doors about Israel’s future positions, when our neighbors are expected to take painful steps, and immediately suppress public protest in their own streets. If we don’t do this, we may be marching to failure. We may find ourselves having to chose between a wild strategic gamble, built on Netanyahu’s megalomania and narcissism and Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s messianic visions, or, alternatively, capitulation under international pressure and strategic ruin.
Many will cavil – didn’t we finally realize, on October 7, that we will live by the sword forever, that all the Arabs are Hamas, and that there’s no point in deluding ourselves? But that is not an accurate appraisal. Rage and the demand for revenge are natural human inclinations, but they are not a healthy guide to statesmanship. My generation experienced decades of wars and countless operations against Jordan and Egypt. As young people, we never thought we would see peace. Today peace with these countries in 30 and 45 years old respectively and has stood firm through difficult challenges and has led to collaborations that run far deeper than the public realizes.
Moreover, this supposed iron-clad logic that leads good people to the conclusion that our security depends on full and permanent Israeli control of the Gaza Strip, will lead them, through the same logic, to believe we need to control Lebanon, and later Syria, and perhaps the entire region.
The requisite conclusion is that the Netanyahu government is causing grave harm to Israel’s strategic standing and leading a war that has no end point. This is causing enormous damage. Netanyahu’s premiership must be terminated before the consequences of his flaws become irreversible. What is needed in current circumstances is a broad national unity government without Netanyahu, and without Smotrich and Ben-Gvir. Only a government acting responsibly and decisively, free of extraneous and distorted considerations will be able to steer Israel to the end of the war and to victory.
Israeli civil society, which displayed such magnificent capabilities when the government all but disappeared, and the combat soldiers and commanders of the Israeli army, who recovered quickly and are operating courageously and efficiently against the enemy, are the source of our future security. They, and the families of the people murdered by Hamas and the hostages, and the people evacuated, and all the volunteers, expect the political leadership to recover too, to do the right thing, and get back on the path to the goals of the war, to rehabilitate security and trust, and to start a new, better chapter for Israeli society.